Quantifying the Influences on Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasts

TL;DR

This paper investigates how different inputs, like weather predictions, influence probabilistic wind power forecasts using sensitivity analysis, highlighting the importance of considering various influences for better model selection and application.

Contribution

It applies sensitivity analysis to compare and understand influences on different probabilistic wind power forecasting models, a novel approach in this context.

Findings

Multiple potential influences depend on model type and predicted probability.

Sensitivity analysis reveals key factors affecting forecast outputs.

Results assist in selecting more robust forecasting models for practical use.

Abstract

In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the uncertainty of the prediction into account and, therefore, to devise optimal decisions, e.g., related to costs and risks in the electrical grid. However, it was yet not studied how the input, such as numerical weather predictions, affects the model output of forecasting models in detail. Therefore, we examine the potential influences with techniques from the field of sensitivity analysis on three different black-box models to obtain insights into differences and similarities of these probabilistic models. The analysis shows a considerable number of potential influences in those models depending on, e.g., the predicted probability and the type of model. These effects motivate the need to take various influences into account when models are tested, analyzed, or compared. Nevertheless, results of the sensitivity analysis will allow us to select a model with advantages in the practical application.