Cessation of Volcanism on Earth-Possibilities in near geological future

TL;DR

This paper explores the decline of volcanic activity on Earth and other rocky planets, suggesting it may cease entirely within millions of years due to internal heat decay, with significant implications for Earth's climate and biosphere.

Contribution

It proposes a model linking planetary volcanic activity decline to internal heat decay and predicts Earth's volcanism may end within 19 to 65 million years.

Findings

Major planets' volcanic activity ceased when surface heat flux was near current Earth's.

Venus shows reduced volcanic activity compared to its past, indicating a decline.

Earth's volcanic activity has been decreasing since the dinosaurs' extinction, possibly ending soon.

Abstract

The number of active volcanoes and its latitudinal extent is likely to be related to the magnitude of internal heat in rocky planets. A critical value of internal heat may require in these planets to sustain volcanic activity and the decline of volcanic activity since their formation of these planets is inferred to be governed by radioactive decay laws. We find that major volcanic activity in Mars, Moon, Mercury and Venus has ceased when their respective surface heat flux values are within ten percentage of the current surface heat flux value of Earth. The reduction in spatial extent of recent volcanic activity in Venus compared to the geological past is inferred to be part of significant reduction in volcanic activity in this twin planet of Earth. We suggest that the volcanic activity in Earth is also declining significantly since the period of mass extinction of dinosaurs 65 million years ago. It may cease completely within a time span between 19 to 65 million years from now with possible implications in Earth's interior, climate and biosphere.