Emergent Properties of Terrorist Networks, Percolation and Social Narrative

TL;DR

This paper models the emergence of terrorist networks using a percolation approach, highlighting the role of ideological and societal factors in driving terrorist events, and proposing a hierarchical framework for dynamic prediction.

Contribution

It introduces a hierarchical, complexity-based model combining strategic percolation with tactical data to understand and predict terrorist network emergence.

Findings

Terrorist events depend on ideological factors and societal involvement.

Links established between extremist ideologies and violence against specific populations.

Model suggests societal fabric influences terrorist activity likelihood.

Abstract

In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that underlie fourth-generation warfare. We have undertaken this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these events from a Complexity perspective by using a threshold-type percolation model. We propose to integrate this strategic level model with tactical level Big Data, behavioral, statistical projections via a fractal operational level model and to construct a hierarchical framework that allows dynamic prediction. Our initial study concentrates on this strategic level, i.e. a percolation model. Our main conclusion from this initial study is that extremist terrorist events are not solely driven by the size of a supporting population within a socio-geographical location but rather a combination of ideological factors that also depends upon the involvement of the host population. This involvement, through the social, political and psychological fabric of society, not only contributes to the active participation of terrorists within society but also directly contributes to and increases the likelihood of the occurrence of terrorist events. Our calculations demonstrate the links between Islamic extremist terrorist events, the ideologies within the Muslim and non-Muslim population that facilitates these terrorist events (such as Anti-Zionism) and anti-Semitic occurrences of violence against the Jewish population. In a future paper, we hope to extend the work undertaken to construct a predictive model and extend our calculations to other forms of terrorism such as Right Wing fundamentalist terrorist events within the USA.