Estimation of Time Delay caused by Point Geometry in Public Transport

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new method to estimate point-specific delays in public transport, providing a more detailed understanding of spatial delay dynamics independent of station delays, which can improve service quality assessment.

Contribution

The study develops a novel point-wise clustering and statistical analysis approach to estimate absolute delays at geometrical points, enhancing public transport delay analysis.

Findings

Delay contributes around 23.56% to overall delay.

The methodology is distribution-independent and offers new insights for policy makers.

It improves understanding of spatial delay variations in public transport networks.

Abstract

Travel time prediction is a well-renowned topic of research. It is primarily influenced by traffic congestion, road conditions and route geometry. Among them route geometry at any point is not investigated enough to find a sound spatial dynamics of timing delays and quality of public transport. This study investigates the reliability of travel time to build a new key performance indicator of public transport network. We have introduced a suitable point wise clustering followed by an adapted statistical significance analysis. The outcome is an estimation of absolute delay at geometrical points independent of the delay at bus station. This outcome serves as an incremental delay towards overall delay. Our investigation suggests that this novel metric of delay time contributes around 23.56% in overall delay. The proposed methodology (here in known as Delay Time and Quality of Service (DT QS)) is capable of providing novel insights which attracts attention among policy makers of public transport operators. The novel insight is coined with assignment of high value to level-of-service attributes. Moreover, the proposed technique is independent of any assumption of normal distribution.