First passage in an interval for fractional Brownian motion

TL;DR

This paper derives an analytical expression for the first passage probability in an interval for fractional Brownian motion, extending classical results for Brownian motion, and confirms findings with large-scale numerical simulations.

Contribution

It provides the first analytical approximation for the first passage probability of fractional Brownian motion, including the effect of the Hurst exponent, and validates it through extensive simulations.

Findings

Analytical formula for first passage probability derivative involving Hurst exponent.

Approximate form of the correction function ${\

Confirmation of analytical results via large-scale simulations up to system size 2^{24}.

Abstract

Be $X_t$ a random process starting at $x \in [0,1]$ with absorbing boundary conditions at both ends of the interval. Denote $P_1(x)$ the probability to first exit at the upper boundary. For Brownian motion, $P_1(x)=x$, equivalent to $P_1'(x)=1$. For fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent $H$, we establish that $P_1'(x) = {\cal N} [x(1-x)]^{\frac1H -2} e^{\epsilon {\cal F}(x)+ {\cal O}(\epsilon^2)}$, where $\epsilon=H-\frac12$. The function ${\cal F}(x)$ is analytic, and well approximated by its Taylor expansion, ${\cal F}(x)\simeq 16 (C-1) (x-1/2)^2 +{\cal O}(x-1/2)^4$, where $C= 0.915...$ is the Catalan-constant. A similar result holds for moments of the exit time starting at $x$. We then consider the span of $X_t$, i.e. the size of the (compact) domain visited up to time $t$. For Brownian motion, we derive an analytic expression for the probability that the span reaches 1 for the first time, then generalized to fBm. Using large-scale numerical simulations with system sizes up to $N=2^{24}$ and a broad range of $H$, we confirm our analytic results. There are important finite-discretization corrections which we quantify. They are most severe for small $H$, necessitating to go to the large systems mentioned above.