Classes of low-frequency earthquakes based on inter-time distribution reveal a precursor event for the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake

TL;DR

This study classifies low-frequency earthquakes in northern Japan, revealing that a specific class's activity decrease preceded the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, suggesting its potential as a precursor indicator.

Contribution

The paper introduces a data-driven classification of LFEs based on inter-time, identifying a class whose activity decline may serve as a precursor to large earthquakes.

Findings

Shortest inter-time class activity diminished before the earthquake

Activity in this class was completely quiescent 30 days prior

Statistical analysis supports its role as a potential earthquake precursor

Abstract

Recently, slow earthquakes (slow EQ) have received much attention relative to understanding the mechanisms underlying large earthquakes and to detecting their precursors. Low-frequency earthquakes (LFE) are a specific type of slow EQ. In the present paper, we reveal the relevance of LFEs to the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake (Tohoku-oki EQ) by means of cluster analysis. We classified LFEs in northern Japan in a data-driven manner, based on inter-time, the time interval between neighboring LFEs occurring within 10 km. We found that there are four classes of LFE that are characterized by median inter-times of 24 seconds, 27 minutes, 2.0 days, and 35 days, respectively. Remarkably, in examining the relevance of these classes to the Tohoku-oki EQ, we found that activity in the shortest inter-time class (median 23 seconds) diminished significantly at least three months before the Tohoku-oki EQ, and became completely quiescent 30 days before the event (p-value = 0.00014). Further statistical analysis implies that this class, together with a similar class of volcanic tremor, may have served as a precursor of the Tohoku-oki EQ. We discuss a generative model for these classes of LFE, in which the shortest inter-time class is characterized by a generalized gamma distribution with the product of shape parameters 1.54 in the domain of inter-time close to zero. We give a possible geodetic interpretation for the relevance of LFE to the Tohoku-oki EQ.