Long-Term Forecasts of Military Technologies for a 20-30 Year Horizon: An Empirical Assessment of Accuracy

TL;DR

This study evaluates the accuracy of 1990s forecasts of military technologies by 2020, finding generally high accuracy and highlighting differences between information and physical effect technologies, with implications for future R&D planning.

Contribution

It provides a quantitative assessment of past military technology forecasts, revealing accuracy levels and methodological insights for future forecast evaluations.

Findings

Forecast accuracy was generally high.

Information technologies were forecasted more accurately than physical effect technologies.

Methodological recommendations for forecast accuracy assessments are proposed.

Abstract

During the 1990s, while exploring the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union on developments in future warfare, a number of authors offered forecasts of military technology appearing by the year 2020. This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the accuracy of this group of forecasts. The overall accuracy - by several measures - was assessed as quite high, thereby pointing to the potential value of such forecasts in managing investments in long-term research and development. Major differences in accuracy, with strong statistical significance, were found between forecasts pertaining primarily to information acquisition and processing technologies, as opposed to technologies that aim primarily at physical effects. This paper also proposes several recommendations regarding methodological aspects of forecast accuracy assessments. Although the assessments were restricted to information available in open literature, the expert assessors did not find this constraint a significant detriment to the assessment process.