Probability and expected frequency of breakthroughs - a robust method of research assessment based on the double rank property of citation distributions

TL;DR

This paper proposes a robust method for research assessment based on the double rank property of citation distributions, enabling probability estimates of rare but impactful scientific breakthroughs.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach to estimate the likelihood of infrequent scientific breakthroughs using citation distribution analysis, improving research evaluation methods.

Findings

Citation distributions enable probability calculations of rare scientific events.

The method offers a more reliable assessment of research impact in policy contexts.

It demonstrates the applicability of the double rank property in research evaluation.

Abstract

In research policy, effective measures that lead to improvements in the generation of knowledge must be based on reliable methods of research assessment, but for many countries and institutions this is not the case. Publication and citation analyses can be used to estimate the part played by countries and institutions in the global progress of knowledge, but a concrete method of estimation is far from evident. The challenge arises because publications that report real progress of knowledge form an extremely low proportion of all publications; in most countries and institutions such contributions appear less than once per year. One way to overcome this difficulty is to calculate probabilities instead of counting the rare events on which scientific progress is based. This study reviews and summarizes several recent publications, and adds new results that demonstrate that the citation distribution of normal publications allows the probability of the infrequent events that support the progress of knowledge to be calculated.