Data-constrained Model for Coronal Mass Ejections Using Graduated Cylindrical Shell Method

TL;DR

This paper presents a data-constrained model for simulating Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) using a Graduated Cylindrical Shell method combined with a flux rope model and MHD simulations, improving space weather prediction accuracy.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach integrating GCS-derived flux rope geometry with a Gibson-Low model and MHD simulations for more accurate CME modeling.

Findings

CME speeds and accelerations match observations well.

Magnetic field structures in simulations agree with coronagraph data.

The method enhances predictive capabilities for space weather events.

Abstract

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of extreme space weather conditions, this being a matter of serious concern for our modern technologically-dependent society. Development of numerical approaches that would simulate CME generation and propagation through the interplanetary space is an important step towards our capability to predict CME arrival times at Earth and their geo-effectiveness. In this paper, we utilize a data-constrained Gibson--Low (GL) flux rope model to generate CMEs. We derive the geometry of the initial GL flux rope using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) method. This method uses multiple viewpoints from STEREO A & B Cor1/Cor2, and SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs to determine the size and orientation of a CME flux rope as it starts to erupt from the Sun. A flux rope generated in this way is inserted into a quasi-steady global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) background solar wind flow driven by SDO/HMI line-of-sight magnetogram data, and erupts immediately. Numerical results obtained with the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) code are compared with STEREO and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph observations in particular in terms of the CME speed, acceleration, and magnetic field structure.