A High-Resolution Future Wave Climate Projection for the Coastal Northwestern Atlantic

TL;DR

This study provides a high-resolution wave climate projection for the northwestern Atlantic, revealing regional changes in wave heights and directions under future climate scenarios using advanced spectral wave modeling.

Contribution

It introduces a coupled high-resolution spectral wave model with detailed wind forcing to project future wave climate changes in the northwestern Atlantic region.

Findings

Wave heights decrease in the northwestern Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

Wave heights increase in the Caribbean Sea.

Significant shifts in wave direction occur, especially west of Florida.

Abstract

A high-resolution wave climate projection for the northwestern Atlantic Ocean has been conducted to help assess possible regional impacts due to global climate change. The spectral wave model NOAA WAVEWATCH III is utilized with three coupled (two-way) grids to resolve the northwestern Atlantic and coastal southern and eastern USA at approximately 21 km and 7 km respectively, and covers the periods 1979--2003 (historic) and 2075--2099 (future). Hourly wind field forcings are provided by a high-resolution AGCM (MRI-AGCM 3.2S; 21 km) and allow for better modeling of large storm events (important for extreme event statistics). Climatological (25-year) comparisons between future and historical periods indicate significant wave heights will decrease in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean (-5.7 %) and Gulf of Mexico (-4.7 %) but increase in the Caribbean Sea (2.4 %). Comparisons also indicate that large changes in mean wave direction will occur in the Gulf of Mexico (5.0{\deg}), with the largest occurring west of the Florida peninsula (over 15{\deg}).