Socio-economic constraints to maximum human lifespan

TL;DR

This study analyzes over 150 years of demographic data across 20 countries, suggesting that maximum human lifespan is not fixed and could increase indefinitely if socio-economic factors continue to improve, highlighting diminishing returns in some nations.

Contribution

It provides statistical evidence that maximum human lifespan is still increasing and explores how socio-economic factors influence this trend, challenging the idea of a fixed lifespan ceiling.

Findings

Maximum lifespan has not plateaued and is still increasing.

If current trends continue, limitless lifespan could be reached by 2102.

Economic growth is necessary to sustain lifespan increases, with diminishing returns in some countries.

Abstract

The analysis of the demographic transition of the past century and a half, using both empirical data and mathematical models, has rendered a wealth of well-established facts, including the dramatic increases in life expectancy. Despite these insights, such analyses have also occasionally triggered debates which spill over many disciplines, from genetics, to biology, or demography. Perhaps the hottest discussion is happening around the question of maximum human lifespan, which --besides its fascinating historical and philosophical interest-- poses urgent pragmatic warnings on a number of issues in public and private decision-making. In this paper, we add to the controversy some results which, based on purely statistical grounds, suggest that the maximum human lifespan is not fixed, or has not reached yet a plateau. Quite the contrary, analysis on reliable data for over 150 years in more than 20 industrialized countries point at a sustained increase in the maximum age at death. Furthermore, were this trend to continue, a limitless lifespan could be achieved by 2102. Finally, we quantify the dependence of increases in the maximum lifespan on socio-economic factors. Our analysis indicates that in some countries the observed rising patterns can only be sustained by progressively larger increases in GDP, setting the problem of longevity in a context of diminishing returns.