Two Different Methods for Modelling the Likely Upper Economic Limit of the Future United Kingdom Wind Fleet

TL;DR

This paper introduces two simple models to predict the maximum economically viable size of the UK wind fleet, considering technological, cost, and grid management changes, highlighting the role of wind fleet headroom.

Contribution

The paper presents two novel models for estimating the upper economic limit of the UK wind fleet using historical wind data and introduces the concept of wind fleet headroom.

Findings

Wind shedding increases with fleet size, reducing efficiency.

Both models produce similar predictions of efficiency loss.

Future wind fleet size is mainly constrained by wind fleet headroom.

Abstract

Methods for predicting the likely upper economic limit for the wind fleet in the United Kingdom should be simple to use whilst being able to cope with evolving technologies, costs and grid management strategies. This paper present two such models, both of which use data on historical wind patterns but apply different approaches to estimating the extent of wind shedding as a function of the size of the wind fleet. It is clear from the models that as the wind fleet increases in size, wind shedding will progressively increase, and as a result the overall economic efficiency of the wind fleet will be reduced. The models provide almost identical predictions of the efficiency loss and suggest that the future upper economic limit of the wind fleet will be mainly determined by the wind fleet Headroom, a concept described in some detail in the paper. The results, which should have general applicability, are presented in graphical form, and should obviate the need for further modelling using the primary data. The paper also discusses the effectiveness of the wind fleet in decarbonising the grid, and the growing competition between wind and solar fleets as sources of electrical energy for the United Kingdom.