Deep learning to represent sub-grid processes in climate models

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that deep learning can effectively replace traditional sub-grid parameterizations in climate models, capturing complex processes like clouds with reduced computational costs and maintaining stability over multi-year simulations.

Contribution

It introduces a neural network-based parameterization for all atmospheric sub-grid processes in a climate model, trained on multi-scale model data, enabling more accurate and efficient climate simulations.

Findings

Neural network parameterization reproduces mean climate and variability.

Simulations remain stable over multi-year periods.

Model approximately conserves energy without explicit constraints.

Abstract

The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but only for short-term simulations of at most a few years because of computational limitations. Here we demonstrate that deep learning can be used to capture many advantages of cloud-resolving modeling at a fraction of the computational cost. We train a deep neural network to represent all atmospheric sub-grid processes in a climate model by learning from a multi-scale model in which convection is treated explicitly. The trained neural network then replaces the traditional sub-grid parameterizations in a global general circulation model in which it freely interacts with the resolved dynamics and the surface-flux scheme. The prognostic multi-year simulations are stable and closely reproduce not only the mean climate of the cloud-resolving simulation but also key aspects of variability, including precipitation extremes and the equatorial wave spectrum. Furthermore, the neural network approximately conserves energy despite not being explicitly instructed to. Finally, we show that the neural network parameterization generalizes to new surface forcing patterns but struggles to cope with temperatures far outside its training manifold. Our results show the feasibility of using deep learning for climate model parameterization. In a broader context, we anticipate that data-driven Earth System Model development could play a key role in reducing climate prediction uncertainty in the coming decade.