Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

TL;DR

This paper argues that the Fermi paradox arises from overconfidence in uncertain parameters of models like the Drake equation, and shows that accounting for realistic uncertainties suggests a high probability of no other intelligent life, resolving the paradox.

Contribution

The paper demonstrates that incorporating realistic uncertainties into models of life's emergence dissolves the Fermi paradox, challenging previous assumptions of abundant extraterrestrial civilizations.

Findings

Realistic uncertainties span multiple orders of magnitude.

High probability of no other intelligent life in the observable universe.

Fermi paradox is resolved by accounting for parameter uncertainties.

Abstract

The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\em ex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations. We show that this conflict arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which implicitly assume certainty regarding highly uncertain parameters. We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chemical and genetic transitions on paths to the origin of life, and show that extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multiple orders of magnitude. This makes a stark difference. When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial {\em ex ante} probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it. This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe.