On Maximizing Safety in Stochastic Aircraft Trajectory Planning with Uncertain Thunderstorm Development

TL;DR

This paper introduces a stochastic modeling approach for aircraft trajectory planning that accounts for uncertain thunderstorm development, aiming to enhance safety and efficiency in air traffic management under meteorological uncertainty.

Contribution

It develops a novel stochastic storm model integrated into an optimal control framework for safer aircraft trajectory planning amidst weather uncertainties.

Findings

Model accurately captures thunderstorm forecast uncertainty

Improves safety by increasing probability of avoiding storms

Validated with realistic simulation case studies

Abstract

Dealing with meteorological uncertainty poses a major challenge in air traffic management (ATM). Convective weather (commonly referred to as storms or thunderstorms) in particular represents a significant safety hazard that is responsible for one quarter of weather-related ATM delays in the US. With commercial air traffic on the rise and the risk of potentially critical capacity bottlenecks looming, it is vital that future trajectory planning tools are able to account for meteorological uncertainty. We propose an approach to model the uncertainty inherent to forecasts of convective weather regions using statistical analysis of state-of-the-art forecast data. The developed stochastic storm model is tailored for use in an optimal control algorithm that maximizes the probability of reaching a waypoint while avoiding hazardous storm regions. Both the aircraft and the thunderstorms are modeled stochastically. The performance of the approach is illustrated and validated through simulated case studies based on recent nowcast data and storm observations.