Age-structured social interactions enhance radicalization

TL;DR

This paper introduces an age-structured model of radicalization showing that age-dependent interactions lead to complex dynamics and generational waves, informing targeted intervention strategies.

Contribution

It develops a novel three-stage, age-dependent model of radicalization and compares it to an age-independent version, revealing new insights into radicalization dynamics.

Findings

Age dependence causes complex, wave-like radicalization patterns.

Targeted interventions are most effective at specific ages.

Age-dependent models predict generational cycles of radical behavior.

Abstract

Disaffected youth are among the most susceptible in espousing and acting on extremist ideals, as confirmed by demographic studies. To study age-dependent radicalization we introduce a three-stage model where individuals progress through non-radical, activist, and radical states, while also aging. Transitions between stages are modeled as age-dependent interactions that are maximized for individuals of the same age and that are enhanced at early adulthood. For comparison, we also derive the age-independent formulation corresponding to the full age-dependent model. We find that age-dependence leads to more complex dynamics, enhancing radicalization in certain parameter regimes. We also observe waves of radical behavior ebbing and flowing over generational cycles, realizing well known paradigms in political science. While government intervention is most effective when the appropriate ages are targeted, deciding whether preventive or corrective action is preferable depends on the aggressiveness of the radicalization process.