Mortality/longevity Risk-Minimization with or without securitization

TL;DR

This paper develops a comprehensive framework for risk-minimization of mortality and longevity liabilities, incorporating arbitrary correlation and information levels, and introduces explicit strategies with or without securitization.

Contribution

It introduces an optional martingale representation for large filtrations, enabling explicit risk-minimizing strategies considering mortality uncertainty and securitization.

Findings

Explicit risk-minimizing strategies derived for mortality liabilities.

Quantification of mortality uncertainty's impact on risk strategies.

Generalization of risk-minimization with securitization beyond existing models.

Abstract

This paper addresses the risk-minimization problem, with and without mortality securitization, \`a la F\"ollmer-Sondermann for a large class of equity-linked mortality contracts when no model for the death time is specified. This framework includes the situation where the correlation between the market model and the time of death is arbitrary general, and hence leads to the case of a market model where there are two levels of information. The public information which is generated by the financial assets, and a larger flow of information that contains additional knowledge about a death time of an insured. By enlarging the filtration, the death uncertainty and its entailed risk are fully considered without any mathematical restriction. Our key tool lies in our optional martingale representation that states that any martingale in the large filtration stopped at the death time can be decomposed into precise orthogonal local martingales. This allows us to derive the dynamics of the value processes of the mortality/longevity securities used for the securitization, and to decompose any mortality/longevity liability into the sum of orthogonal risks by means of a risk basis. The first main contribution of this paper resides in quantifying, as explicit as possible, the effect of mortality uncertainty on the risk-minimizing strategy by determining the optimal strategy in the enlarged filtration in terms of strategies in the smaller filtration. Our second main contribution consists of finding risk-minimizing strategies with insurance securitization by investing in stocks and one (or more) mortality/longevity derivatives such as longevity bonds. This generalizes the existing literature on risk-minimization using mortality securitization in many directions.