An\'alisis estad\'istico ex post del conteo r\'apido institucional de la elecci\'on de gobernador del Estado de M\'exico en 2017

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the accuracy, confidence levels, and potential bias of the institutional quick count in the 2017 Mexico State governor election to assess its reliability and adherence to statistical objectives.

Contribution

It provides a detailed statistical ex post analysis of the quick count methodology used in the 2017 election, focusing on precision, bias, and confidence levels.

Findings

High accuracy of the quick count estimates

Minimal bias detected in the results

Confidence intervals appropriately reflect uncertainty

Abstract

A statistical analysis of an electoral quick count based on the total count of votes in the election of the State of Mexico's governor in 2017 is performed in order to verify precision, confidence level of interval estimations, possible bias and derived conclusions therein, with the main purpose of checking compliance with the objectives of such statistical procedure. ----- Se realiza un an\'alisis estad\'istico de las estimaciones del conteo r\'apido institucional desde la perspectiva ideal de los resultados de los c\'omputos distritales de la elecci\'on de gobernador del Estado de M\'exico del a\~no 2017, particularmente aspectos como la precisi\'on de las estimaciones, el nivel de confianza de los intervalos, el posible sesgo respecto al c\'omputo distrital y las conclusiones que se derivaron y reportaron, con el objetivo de determinar el grado de cumplimiento de los objetivos de este ejercicio estad\'istico de car\'acter informativo.