Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth: A System Dynamics Approach

TL;DR

This paper develops a system dynamics model based on epidemic theory to understand church growth, emphasizing contact-driven recruitment and enthusiasm decay, providing insights into growth patterns during religious revivals.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of epidemic models to church growth using System Dynamics, with modifications to the SIR model for religious contexts.

Findings

Model explains church growth dynamics during revivals

Contact and enthusiasm decay are key factors

Simple model offers valuable insights

Abstract

The possibility of using mathematics to model church growth is investigated using ideas from population modeling. It is proposed that a major mechanism of growth is through contact between religious enthusiasts and unbelievers, where the enthusiasts are only enthusiastic for a limited period. After that period they remain church members but less effective in recruitment. This leads to the general epidemic model which is applied to a variety of church growth situations. Results show that even a simple model like this can help understand the way in which churches grow, particularly in times of religious revival. This is a revised version of Hayward (1999) using System Dynamics and some small modifications to the SIR model.