A bistable belief dynamics model for radicalization within sectarian conflict

TL;DR

This paper presents a novel two-variable model incorporating bistable radicalization to explain spatial polarization and conflict dynamics, highlighting how institutional influence can either mitigate or exacerbate radicalization in sectarian conflicts.

Contribution

It introduces a bistable radicalization mechanism into belief dynamics models and explores the effects of institutional influence on social polarization and conflict.

Findings

Bistable radicalization explains contradictory effects of social segregation.

Institutional influence can suppress or promote radicalization depending on parameters.

Social segregation may be an effective strategy against sectarian conflict.

Abstract

We introduce a two-variable model to describe spatial polarization, radicalization, and conflict. Individuals in the model harbor a continuous belief variable as well as a discrete radicalization level expressing their tolerance to neighbors with different beliefs. A novel feature of our model is that it incorporates a bistable radicalization process to address memory-dependent social behavior. We demonstrate how bistable radicalization may explain contradicting observations regarding whether social segregation exacerbates or alleviates conflicts. We also extend our model by introducing a mechanism to include institutional influence, such as propaganda or education, and examine its effectiveness. In some parameter regimes, institutional influence may suppress the progression of radicalization and allow a population to achieve social conformity over time. In other cases, institutional intervention may exacerbate the spread of radicalization through a population of mixed beliefs. In such instances, our analysis implies that social segregation may be a viable option against sectarian conflict.