Detecting the Yarkovsky effect among near-Earth asteroids from astrometric data

TL;DR

This study identifies and verifies the Yarkovsky effect in near-Earth asteroids using astrometric data, improving impact risk assessment and detection reliability.

Contribution

The paper provides an updated list of 87 reliable Yarkovsky detections and introduces methods to distinguish genuine signals from spurious ones.

Findings

87 reliable Yarkovsky detections identified

24 marginal detections with potential for future confirmation

Detection of solar radiation pressure on small asteroids

Abstract

We present an updated set of near-Earth asteroids with a Yarkovsky-related semimajor axis drift detected from the orbital fit to the astrometry. We find 87 reliable detections after filtering for the signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky drift estimate and making sure the estimate is compatible with the physical properties of the analyzed object. Furthermore, we find a list of 24 marginally significant detections, for which future astrometry could result in a Yarkovsky detection. A further outcome of the filtering procedure is a list of detections that we consider spurious because unrealistic or not explicable with the Yarkovsky effect. Among the smallest asteroids of our sample, we determined four detections of solar radiation pressure, in addition to the Yarkovsky effect. As the data volume increases in the near future, our goal is to develop methods to generate very long lists of asteroids with reliably detected Yarkovsky effect, with limited amounts of case by case specific adjustments. Furthermore, we discuss the improvements this work could bring to impact monitoring. In particular, we exhibit two asteroids for which the adoption of a non-gravitational model is needed to make reliable impact predictions.