Modeling Dengue Vector Population Using Remotely Sensed Data and Machine Learning

TL;DR

This study develops machine learning models to predict Aedes aegypti mosquito oviposition activity using remote sensing data, outperforming linear models and aiding public health efforts in Argentina.

Contribution

It introduces non-linear machine learning techniques for mosquito population modeling using freely available satellite data, improving prediction accuracy over previous linear models.

Findings

KNNR achieved the best predictive performance.

Non-linear models outperform linear approaches.

Models are suitable for operational use in Argentine health systems.

Abstract

Mosquitoes are vectors of many human diseases. In particular, Aedes \ae gypti (Linnaeus) is the main vector for Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika viruses in Latin America and it represents a global threat. Public health policies that aim at combating this vector require dependable and timely information, which is usually expensive to obtain with field campaigns. For this reason, several efforts have been done to use remote sensing due to its reduced cost. The present work includes the temporal modeling of the oviposition activity (measured weekly on 50 ovitraps in a north Argentinean city) of Aedes \ae gypti (Linnaeus), based on time series of data extracted from operational earth observation satellite images. We use are NDVI, NDWI, LST night, LST day and TRMM-GPM rain from 2012 to 2016 as predictive variables. In contrast to previous works which use linear models, we employ Machine Learning techniques using completely accessible open source toolkits. These models have the advantages of being non-parametric and capable of describing nonlinear relationships between variables. Specifically, in addition to two linear approaches, we assess a Support Vector Machine, an Artificial Neural Networks, a K-nearest neighbors and a Decision Tree Regressor. Considerations are made on parameter tuning and the validation and training approach. The results are compared to linear models used in previous works with similar data sets for generating temporal predictive models. These new tools perform better than linear approaches, in particular Nearest Neighbor Regression (KNNR) performs the best. These results provide better alternatives to be implemented operatively on the Argentine geospatial Risk system that is running since 2012.