Statistical study of magnetic non-potential measures in confined and eruptive flares

TL;DR

This study analyzes the relationship between magnetic non-potentiality and solar flare/CME activity, identifying key magnetic thresholds and correlations that improve understanding and prediction of eruptive solar events.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed analysis of magnetic non-potential measures using flare-ribbon information, revealing thresholds and correlations that enhance flare and CME eruption predictions.

Findings

Higher correlation of non-potentiality measures with flare strength and CME speed.

Thresholds identified for eruptive flare prediction based on magnetic properties.

Steeper decay-index curves associated with eruptive flares.

Abstract

Using the HMI/SDO vector magnetic field observations, we studied the relation of degree of magnetic non-potentiality with the observed flare/CME in active regions. From a sample of 77 flare/CME cases, we found a general relation that degree of non-potentiality is positively correlated with the flare strength and the associated CME speeds. Since the magnetic flux in the flare-ribbon area is more related to the reconnection, we trace the strong gradient polarity inversion line (SGPIL), Schrijver's R value manually along the flare-ribbon extent. Manually detected SGPIL length and R values show higher correlation with the flare strength and CME speed than the automatically traced values without flare-ribbon information. It highlights the difficulty of predicting the flare strength and CME speed a priori from the pre-flare magnetograms used in flare prediction models. Although the total, potential magnetic energy proxies show weak positive correlation, the decrease in free energy exhibits higher correlation (0.56) with the flare strength and CME speed. Moreover, the eruptive flares have threshold of SGPIL length (31Mm), R value ($1.6\times10^{19}$Mx), free-energy decrease ($2\times10^{31}$erg) compared to confined ones. In 90\% eruptive flares, the decay-index curve is steeper reaching $n_{crit}=1.5$ within 42Mm, whereas it is beyond 42Mm in $>70$% confined flares. While indicating the improved statistics in the predictive capability of the AR eruptive behavior with the flare-ribbon information, our study provides threshold magnetic properties for a flare to be eruptive.