Numerical Bifurcation Analysis of Marine Ice Sheet Models

TL;DR

This paper applies numerical bifurcation analysis to a 2D marine ice sheet model with a dynamic grounding line, revealing oscillations that could explain the 100 kyr glacial cycles of the Pleistocene Ice Ages.

Contribution

First application of numerical bifurcation analysis to a 2D marine ice sheet model with a dynamic grounding line, identifying potential mechanisms for glacial cycle periodicity.

Findings

Identified Hopf bifurcations with ~100 kyr period

Revealed oscillatory behavior relevant to glacial cycles

Demonstrated the model's potential to explain Pleistocene climate variability

Abstract

The climate variability associated with the Pleistocene Ice Ages is one of the most fascinating puzzles in the Earth Sciences still awaiting a satisfactory explanation. In particular, the explanation of the dominant 100 kyr period of the glacial cycles over the last million years is a long-standing problem. Based on bifurcation analyses of low-order models, many theories have been suggested to explain these cycles and their frequency. The new aspect in this contribution is that, for the first time, numerical bifurcation analysis is applied to a two-dimensional marine ice sheet model with a dynamic grounding line. In this model, we find Hopf bifurcations with an oscillation period of about 100 kyr which may be relevant to glacial cycles.