Prediction in Cyber Security: Complications and Consolations

TL;DR

This paper discusses the challenges of prediction in cyber security, proposing an ontology to manage complications like uncertainty and error, and aims to align cyber security with traditional scientific methods.

Contribution

It introduces a five-element ontology of complications for prediction in cyber security and maps interdisciplinary concepts to improve understanding and application.

Findings

Ontology clarifies prediction complications in cyber security

Mapping disciplines aids in managing uncertainties

Framework supports more scientific approaches in cyber security

Abstract

Uncertainty, error, and similar complications add to the many challenges of cyber security. Various disciplines have developed methods for managing these complications, but applying these methods involves disambiguating overlapping terminology and determining a method's proper usage in the context of cyber security, which has unique properties. This process is here guided by the need for prediction, which is required for cyber security to become more like traditional sciences. A motivating malware analysis example is defined. A five-element ontology of complications for prediction is presented, and concepts from numerous disciplines are mapped to it in terms of the motivating example.