Rogue active regions and the inherent unpredictability of the solar dynamo

TL;DR

This paper discusses how large, anomalous active regions, termed 'rogue' regions, can significantly influence the variability of the solar cycle, highlighting the inherent unpredictability of the solar dynamo.

Contribution

It provides a current understanding of the impact of rogue active regions on solar cycle variability, integrating recent surface flux transport modeling and dynamo theory.

Findings

Rogue active regions can alter the amplitude of solar cycles.

Anomalous properties of active regions influence long-term solar activity.

Surface flux transport models help understand cycle-to-cycle variations.

Abstract

New developments in surface flux transport modeling and theory of flux transport dynamos have given rise to the notion that certain large active regions with anomalous properties (location, tilt angle and/or Hale/non-Hale character) may have a major impact on the course of solar activity in subsequent years, impacting also on the amplitude of the following solar cycles. Here we discuss our current understanding of the role of such "rogue" active regions in cycle-to-cycle variations of solar activity.