Small impacts on the giant planet Jupiter

TL;DR

Amateur astronomer observations over eight years reveal small impacts on Jupiter, allowing estimation of impact rates, object sizes, and their contribution to the planet's exogenous material, with implications for future impact detection.

Contribution

This study provides new analysis of impact flashes on Jupiter, estimating impact rates and object sizes, based on recent observations and light curve analysis.

Findings

Impact rate of 5-20 m objects is 10-65 impacts per year.

Only a small fraction of impacts are observable from Earth.

Impacts contribute negligibly to Jupiter's exogenous species.

Abstract

Video observations of Jupiter obtained by amateur astronomers over the past eight years have shown five flashes of light of 1-2 s. The first three of these events occurred on 3 June 2010, 20 August 2010, and 10 September 2012. Previous analyses showed that they were caused by the impact of objects of 5-20 m in diameter, depending on their density, with a released energy comparable to superbolides on Earth of the class of the Chelyabinsk airburst. The most recent two flashes on Jupiter were detected on 17 March 2016 and 26 May 2017 and are analyzed here. We characterize the energy involved together with the masses and sizes of the objects that produced these flashes. The rate of similar impacts on Jupiter provides improved constraints on the total flux of impacts on the planet, which can be compared to the amount of exogenic species detected in the upper atmosphere of Jupiter. We extracted light curves of the flashes and calculated the masses and sizes of the impacting objects. An examination of the number of amateur observations of Jupiter as a function of time allows us to interpret the statistics of these detections. The cumulative flux of small objects (5-20 m or larger) that impact Jupiter is predicted to be low (10-65 impacts per year), and only a fraction of them are potentially observable from Earth (4-25 per year in a perfect survey). More impacts will be found in the next years, with Jupiter opposition displaced toward summer in the northern hemisphere. Objects of this size contribute negligibly to the exogenous species and dust in the stratosphere of Jupiter when compared with the continuous flux from interplanetary dust punctuated by giant impacts. Flashes of a high enough could produce an observable debris field on the planet. We estimate that a continuous search for these impacts might find these events once every 0.4 to 2.6 years.