Theory of Cricket: Target Scores and Predictability

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new empirical model for recalculating target scores in rain-affected cricket matches, based on analyzing run rate data and considering overs and wickets, offering an alternative to existing methods.

Contribution

The paper presents a simple, data-driven approach to determine target scores in interrupted cricket games, incorporating empirical analysis and statistical modeling.

Findings

Wickets significantly impact ODI target calculations but less so in T20.

Run scoring distributions are independent of innings.

The model uses two parameters: overs and wickets.

Abstract

We propose a model for recalculating the target score in rain affected matches based on empirical data. During the development of the current stage of the Cricket, different methods have been introduced to recalculate the target scores in interpreted games. Currently, the International Cricket Council (ICC) uses the Duckworth-Lewis method and have in the past strongly considered changing to the VJD method. Here, we introduce a simple approach to calculate target scores in interrupted games by considering the area under a run rate curve. To calculate the target we have analysed over a decades worth of empirical data using various statistical methods. As in the case of Duckworth- Lewis method, we also have two parameters in our model, that is overs and wickets in combination. We also found that in the one day international cricket (ODI) wickets play a crucial role whereas in T20 cricket they do not effect the run rate of the games to the same degree. Using empirical and mathematical arguments we show that the run scoring distributions are independent of the innings.