Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

TL;DR

This paper introduces a discrete-time metapopulation model for epidemic spread in confined environments with recurrent mobility, providing insights into epidemic onset and prevention strategies.

Contribution

It presents a novel analytical model capturing recurrent mobility patterns in localized settings, aiding in understanding and controlling disease transmission.

Findings

Model predicts epidemic onset based on mobility and contact structure

Identifies effective prevention strategies like isolation in confined scenarios

Provides analytical tools for epidemic control in localized environments

Abstract

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns --such as workplaces, university campuses or schools-- it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of SIS-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.