The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years

TL;DR

This paper reviews 25 years of ECMWF's ensemble prediction system, discussing its origins, key features like singular vectors and stochastic physics, and speculates on future developments in ensemble forecasting.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive historical overview and analysis of ECMWF's ensemble system, highlighting its unique features and future outlook.

Findings

Development of singular vectors and stochastic physics enhanced forecast accuracy

Historical evolution of ECMWF ensemble system over 25 years

Future projections for ensemble prediction technology and applications

Abstract

This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.