Coupling the Yoccoz-Birkeland population model with price dynamics: chaotic livestock commodities market cycles

TL;DR

This paper introduces a coupled model combining the Yoccoz-Birkeland population dynamics with livestock price fluctuations, revealing persistent chaotic attractors influenced by market prices, offering insights into livestock market cycles.

Contribution

It develops a novel coupled model integrating population dynamics with price evolution, demonstrating the persistence of chaos in livestock markets influenced by economic factors.

Findings

Existence of a strange attractor in the coupled model.

Chaotic behavior depends on price dynamics.

The attractor persists under coupling with price evolution.

Abstract

We propose a new model for the time evolution of livestock commodities which exhibits endogenous deterministic stochastic behaviour. The model is based on the Yoccoz-Birkeland integral equation, a model first developed for studying the time-evolution of single species with high average fertility, a relatively short mating season and density dependent reproduction rates. This equation is then coupled with a differential equation describing the price of a livestock commodity driven by the unbalance between its demand and supply. At its birth the cattle population is split into two parts: reproducing females and cattle for butchery. The relative amount of the two is determined by the spot price of the meat. We prove the existence of an attractor and we investigate numerically its properties: the strange attractor existing for the original Yoccoz-Birkeland model is persistent but its chaotic behaviour depends also from the price evolution in an essential way.