Statistical tests for evaluating an earthquake prediction method

TL;DR

This paper discusses statistical methods to evaluate earthquake prediction techniques, including tests for postcursors, unequal probabilities, and enhancement factors, highlighting the importance of rigorous validation of prediction signals.

Contribution

It introduces new statistical tests for assessing earthquake prediction methods, accounting for postcursors, unequal probabilities, and potential seismic signals preceding earthquakes.

Findings

Postcursors influence null hypothesis tests

Generalized central limit theorem allows for unequal prediction probabilities

Seismic signals may precede earthquakes even if predictions fail

Abstract

The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the enhancement factor over random chance is given. The seismic earthquake signal may preferentially precede earthquakes even if the VAN methodology fails to forecast the earthquakes. We formulate a statistical test for this possibility.