Bayesian mean-variance analysis: Optimal portfolio selection under parameter uncertainty

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian approach to optimal portfolio selection that accounts for parameter uncertainty by using posterior predictive distributions, resulting in more reliable portfolios and an improved efficient frontier.

Contribution

It develops a Bayesian framework for portfolio optimization that directly incorporates parameter uncertainty, providing a data-driven solution and a Bayesian efficient frontier.

Findings

Bayesian efficient frontier outperforms the sample efficient frontier.

The method provides a predictive distribution for portfolio returns.

The approach yields more reliable and less overoptimistic portfolios.

Abstract

The paper solves the problem of optimal portfolio choice when the parameters of the asset returns distribution, like the mean vector and the covariance matrix are unknown and have to be estimated by using historical data of the asset returns. The new approach employs the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution which is the distribution of the future realization of the asset returns given the observable sample. The parameters of the posterior predictive distributions are functions of the observed data values and, consequently, the solution of the optimization problem is expressed in terms of data only and does not depend on unknown quantities. In contrast, the optimization problem of the traditional approach is based on unknown quantities which are estimated in the second step leading to a suboptimal solution. We also derive a very useful stochastic representation of the posterior predictive distribution whose application leads not only to the solution of the considered optimization problem, but provides the posterior predictive distribution of the optimal portfolio return used to construct a prediction interval. A Bayesian efficient frontier, a set of optimal portfolios obtained by employing the posterior predictive distribution, is constructed as well. Theoretically and using real data we show that the Bayesian efficient frontier outperforms the sample efficient frontier, a common estimator of the set of optimal portfolios known to be overoptimistic.