Identifying the occurrence or non occurrence of cognitive bias in situations resembling the Monty Hall problem

TL;DR

This paper develops criteria to identify when heuristic reasoning in puzzles like the Monty Hall problem leads to cognitive bias, clarifying the conditions under which bias can be detected in decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces criteria applicable to various situations to determine if heuristic reasoning results in cognitive bias in inferential puzzles.

Findings

Criteria for detecting cognitive bias in heuristic reasoning

In some cases, bias cannot be conclusively identified

Provides a framework for analyzing decision-making in puzzles

Abstract

People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a departure from sound reasoning may, but does not necessarily, result in a "cognitively biased" outcome different from what sound reasoning would have produced. Criteria are derived here, applicable to both experimental and non-experimental situations, for heuristic reasoning in an inferential-puzzle situations to result, or not to result, in cognitively bias. In some situations, neither of these criteria is satisfied, and whether or not agents' posterior probability assessments or choices are cognitively biased cannot be determined.