Aggregating the response in time series regression models, applied to weather-related cardiovascular mortality

TL;DR

This paper introduces a methodology for aggregating health response data in time series regression models to better capture the true signal in weather-related cardiovascular mortality studies, improving model fit and focus.

Contribution

A novel approach to account for aggregation effects in regression models, applicable to GAM and DLNM, with an emphasis on modeling residuals using ARMA for temporal dependence.

Findings

Aggregation improves model fit quality.

Aggregated response emphasizes multi-day effects.

Asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is most effective.

Abstract

In environmental epidemiology studies, health response data (e.g. hospitalization or mortality) are often noisy because of hospital organization and other social factors. The noise in the data can hide the true signal related to the exposure. The signal can be unveiled by performing a temporal aggregation on health data and then using it as the response in regression analysis. From aggregated series, a general methodology is introduced to account for the particularities of an aggregated response in a regression setting. This methodology can be used with usually applied regression models in weather-related health studies, such as generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). In particular, the residuals are modelled using an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to account for the temporal dependence. The proposed methodology is illustrated by modelling the influence of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Canada. A comparison with classical DLNMs is provided and several aggregation methods are compared. Results show that there is an increase in the fit quality when the response is aggregated, and that the estimated relationship focuses more on the outcome over several days than the classical DLNM. More precisely, among various investigated aggregation schemes, it was found that an aggregation with an asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is more suited for studying the temperature-mortality relationship.