Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events

TL;DR

This paper applies extreme value theory to model and estimate the probabilities of rare, high-impact solar flare events, providing more accurate risk assessments than traditional power law models.

Contribution

It introduces EVT-based modeling for solar flares, improving the estimation of extreme event probabilities compared to previous power law approaches.

Findings

Predicted return period of Carrington-like events: 110 years.

Predicted return period of Halloween-like events: 38 years.

EVT provides more reliable estimates for extreme solar flare events.

Abstract

Space weather events such as solar flares can be harmful for life and infrastructure on earth or in near-earth orbit. In this paper we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model extreme solar flare events; EVT offers the appropriate tools for the study and estimation of probabilities for extrapolation to ranges outside of those that have already been observed. In the past such phenomena have been modelled as following a power law which may gives poor estimates of such events due to overestimation. The data used in the study were X-ray fluxes from NOAA/GOES and the expected return levels for Carrington or Halloween like events were calculated with the outcome that the existing data predict similar events happening in 110 and 38 years respectively.