A physical framework for the Earth System, the Anthropocene Equation and the Great Acceleration

TL;DR

This paper models the transition of the Earth System into the Anthropocene as a phase transition using Landau-Ginzburg theory, deriving an equation that predicts temperature divergence and susceptibility to human effects.

Contribution

It introduces a novel physical framework and the Anthropocene equation to describe Earth System changes as a phase transition, providing a quantitative basis for understanding human impact.

Findings

Earth temperature diverges as the cubic root of human intervention.

Human effects can cause changes comparable to natural causes.

Susceptibility to human effects increases near the phase transition.

Abstract

It is proposed, based on the Landau-Ginzburg Theory of phase transitions, that the transition of the Earth System from the stable conditions of the Holocene to the human driven condition of the Anthropocene is, actually, a phase transition, a qualitative change away from its Holocene equilibrium state. Based on this physical framework, one obtains the Anthropocene equation, the so-called Great Acceleration and shows that (i) the Earth System temperature on the new equilibrium state diverges from the average temperature of the Holocene as the cubic root of the human intervention, described by a parameter, $H$; (ii) the human induced departure from the Holocene can be as drastic as the ones due to natural, astronomical and geophysical causes; (iii) the susceptibility of the Earth System to human effects is much more relevant near the phase transition. The procedure to obtain numerical predictions from data is also exemplified through one of the existing proposals to account for human impact on the Earth's Holocene equilibrium.