Precursors of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes from coronal green line data

TL;DR

This paper investigates the rush-to-the-poles phenomenon in coronal green line data as an early indicator of solar cycle 25, establishing correlations to predict its timing and amplitude based on high-latitude solar activity.

Contribution

It introduces a correlation between RTTP rate and solar cycle timing, providing a new method for predicting solar cycle characteristics from coronal green line data.

Findings

Cycle 25 predicted to peak in late 2024

Cycle 25's amplitude estimated at about 130

Cycle 25 expected to be slightly stronger than cycle 24

Abstract

After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of the RTTP with the upcoming solar cycle we find a correlation between the rate of the RTTP and the time delay until the maximum of the next solar cycle. On the basis of this correlation and the known internal regularities of the sunspot number series we predict that, following a minimum in 2019, cycle 25 will peak in late 2024 at an amplitude of about 130 (in terms of smoothed monthly revised sunspot numbers). This slightly exceeds the amplitude of cycle 24 but it would still make cycle 25 a fairly weak cycle.