Fluctuations in Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Comparing Observations and Climate Models

TL;DR

This study compares observed Arctic sea ice fluctuations with climate model outputs, revealing significant discrepancies in fluctuation characteristics and highlighting the need for improved modeling of decadal and white noise features.

Contribution

It introduces a multi-fractal time series method to evaluate and compare observed and modeled sea ice fluctuations, exposing model deficiencies in capturing key statistical features.

Findings

Models show high variability in fluctuation time scales

None of the models reproduce the observed decadal trend

Few models replicate the observed white noise structure

Abstract

The fluctuation statistics of the observed sea ice extent during the satellite era are compared with model output from CMIP5 models using a multi-fractal time series method. The two robust features of the observations are that on annual to bi-annual time scales the ice extent exhibits white noise structure and there is a decadal scale trend associated with the decay of the ice cover. It is shown that (i) there is a large inter-model variability in the time scales extracted from the models, (ii) none of the models exhibit the decadal time scales found in the satellite observations, (iii) {5} of the 21 models examined exhibit the observed white noise structure, and (iv) the multi-model ensemble mean exhibits neither the observed white noise structure nor the observed decadal trend. It is proposed that the observed fluctuation statistics produced by this method serve as an appropriate test bed for modeling studies.