A framework for epidemic spreading in multiplex networks of metapopulations

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multiplex network framework to model epidemic spread in structured metapopulations with heterogeneous agents and mobility patterns, validated through simulations and applied to real city data.

Contribution

It presents a novel multiplex network approach for epidemic modeling that incorporates heterogeneity and mobility, with an exact epidemic threshold derivation and real-world application.

Findings

Model accurately predicts epidemic spread in simulations.

Derived epidemic threshold depends non-trivially on mobility.

Applied framework to analyze disease spread in Medellin, Colombia.

Abstract

We propose a theoretical framework for the study of epidemics in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility patterns. We propose to represent the heterogeneity in the composition of the metapopulations as layers in a multiplex network, where nodes would correspond to geographical areas and layers account for the mobility patterns of agents of the same class. We analyze both the classical Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and the Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemic models within this framework, and compare macroscopic and microscopic indicators of the spreading process with extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are in excellent agreement with the simulations. We also derive an exact expression of the epidemic threshold on this general framework revealing a non-trivial dependence on the mobility parameter. Finally, we use this new formalism to address the spread of diseases in real cities, specifically in the city of Medellin, Colombia, whose population is divided into six socio-economic classes, each one identified with a layer in this multiplex formalism.