Statistical tests for extreme precipitation volumes

TL;DR

This paper introduces statistical methods based on the negative binomial, gamma, and Snedecor-Fisher distributions to define and test for extreme precipitation volumes during wet periods, supported by real data analysis.

Contribution

It proposes novel statistical tests for extreme precipitation using distributional models and asymptotic approximations, enhancing the understanding of wet period precipitation extremes.

Findings

Wet periods with extreme precipitation are increasing in intensity.

The proposed models fit real data well.

New tests effectively identify extreme precipitation volumes.

Abstract

The approaches, based on the negative binomial model for the distribution of duration of the wet periods measured in days, are proposed to the definition of extreme precipitation. This model demonstrates excellent fit with real data and provides a theoretical base for the determination of asymptotic approximations to the distributions of the maximum daily precipitation volume within a wet period as well as the total precipitation volume over a wet period. The first approach to the definition (and determination) of extreme precipitation is based on the tempered Snedecor-Fisher distribution of the maximum daily precipitation. According to this approach, a daily precipitation volume is considered to be extreme, if it exceeds a certain (pre-defined) quantile of the tempered Snedecor--Fisher distribution. The second approach is based on that the total precipitation volume for a wet period has the gamma distribution. Hence, the hypothesis that the total precipitation volume during a certain wet period is extremely large can be formulated as the homogeneity hypothesis of a sample from the gamma distribution. Two equivalent tests are proposed for testing this hypothesis. Both of these tests deal with the relative contribution of the total precipitation volume for a wet period to the considered set (sample) of successive wet periods. Within the second approach it is possible to introduce the notions of relatively and absolutely extreme precipitation volumes. The results of the application of these tests to real data are presented yielding the conclusion that the intensity of wet periods with extreme large precipitation volume increases.