A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA

TL;DR

This paper introduces CAT-PUMA, a machine learning-based tool that predicts CME arrival times with high accuracy and speed, utilizing SVM algorithms and detailed solar data analysis.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel machine learning approach, CAT-PUMA, for CME arrival time prediction that outperforms previous models in accuracy and speed.

Findings

Mean absolute prediction error of ~5.9 hours

54% of predictions have errors less than 5.9 hours

77% of events predicted more accurately than other models

Abstract

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the Solar System. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in the interplanetary space and even affect human activities in many respects, causing damages to infrastructure and losses of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is then vital to minimize the disruption CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full-halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM). We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set, that is unknown to the engine, show a mean absolute prediction error $\sim$5.9 hours of the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hours. Comparison with other models reveals that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated; and can be carried out very fast, i.e. within minutes after providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.