Risk of coinfection outbreaks in temporal networks: a case study of a hospital contact network

TL;DR

This study investigates how cooperative infections spread in a hospital contact network, revealing phase transitions, endemic branches, and the impact of cooperation on epidemic thresholds and outbreak probabilities.

Contribution

It introduces an empirical analysis of cooperative infection dynamics in temporal networks, highlighting the influence of cooperation on epidemic thresholds and outbreak sizes.

Findings

Cooperative infections lower epidemic thresholds.

Two endemic branches identified in the network.

Cooperation increases outbreak probability.

Abstract

We study the spreading of cooperative infections in an empirical temporal network of contacts between people, including health care workers and patients, in a hospital. The system exhibits a phase transition leading to one or several endemic branches, depending on the connectivity pattern and the temporal correlations. There are two endemic branches in the original setting and the non-cooperative case. However, the cooperative interaction between infections reinforces the upper branch, leading to a smaller epidemic threshold and a higher probability for having a big outbreak. We show the microscopic mechanisms leading to these differences, characterize three different risks, and use the influenza features as an example for this dynamics.