The socio-economic impact of a breakthrough in the particle accelerators' technology: a research agenda

TL;DR

This paper explores how to evaluate the socio-economic benefits of breakthroughs in accelerator technology, proposing a model for social cost-benefit analysis and outlining a research agenda for assessing industry impacts.

Contribution

It introduces a novel social cost-benefit analysis model for research infrastructures and presents a research agenda for understanding the impacts of technological breakthroughs in accelerators.

Findings

Model applied to assess benefits in basic science and hadrontherapy

Identifies key stakeholders interested in accelerator breakthroughs

Proposes a framework for evaluating industry-wide impacts

Abstract

Preliminary evidence on the long--run trajectory of the accelerator industry suggests that it may be close to the maturity phase of its cycle. If this is the case, how can we measure the benefits of an uncertain breakthrough in acceleration technology? Who are the main stakeholders interested by such a breakthrough? We identify these subjects and sketch some avenues for answering these questions. We thus present a model for the social Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of research infrastructures and illustrate the results of its implementation for assessing the benefits of accelerators in basic science and hadrontherapy. Lastly, we move from the social CBA of single research infrastructures to modeling a major change in the accelerator technology and hence in the industry. A research agenda on the potential impacts of a technological breakthrough is presented.