Hopf bifurcation in a conceptual climate model with ice-albedo and precipitation-temperature feedbacks

TL;DR

This paper analyzes a simplified climate model to identify conditions leading to oscillations in Earth's climate, providing insights into ice age dynamics through bifurcation analysis.

Contribution

It rigorously characterizes the Hopf bifurcation in a conceptual climate model, extending previous results with clear physical interpretations.

Findings

Identified conditions for climate oscillations via Hopf bifurcation.

Model predictions align with historical ice age conditions.

Provided a complete phase plane analysis for the stationary snow line case.

Abstract

In this paper we analyse a dynamical system based on the so-called KCG (K\"all\'en, Crafoord, Ghil) conceptual climate model. This model describes an evolution of the globally averaged temperature and the average extent of the ice sheets. In the nondimensional form the model is prone to several simplifications facilitating the subsequent analysis. We consider the limiting case of the stationary snow line for which the phase plane can be completely analysed and the type of each stationary point can be determined. One of them can exhibit the Hopf bifurcation for which occurrence we find the sufficient conditions. Those, in turn, have a straightforward physical meaning and indicate that the model predicts internal oscillations of the climate. Using the typical values of model parameters we conclude that the obtained results are in the same ballpark as the conditions on our planet during the quaternary ice ages. Our analysis is a rigorous justification of a generalization of some previous results by KCG and other authors.