Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

TL;DR

The paper introduces an upgraded ensemble model (DBEM) for predicting coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival times and speeds, providing uncertainty quantification and comparable accuracy to existing models like ENLIL.

Contribution

The paper presents the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM), enabling rapid, real-time CME predictions with uncertainty estimates, improving upon previous single-run models.

Findings

DBEM provides near real-time CME arrival predictions.

Performance metrics are comparable to the ENLIL model.

Fast CMEs tend to be predicted earlier than observed.

Abstract

The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, covering ensemble modelling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM). Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is $ME=-9.7$ hours, mean absolute error $MAE=14.3$ hours and root mean square error $RMSE=16.7$ hours, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors ($ME=-6.1$ hours, $MAE=12.8$ hours and $RMSE=14.4$ hours). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most probably owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.