Heating Up in NBA Free Throw Shooting

TL;DR

This paper investigates how repetition, interruption, fatigue, and stress influence NBA free throw shooting, highlighting the dynamic, causal nature of the hot hand and its implications for strategic decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces a causal, dynamic perspective on the hot hand, emphasizing operationalization and measurement of effects influencing human performance.

Findings

Repetition heats players up, improving performance.

Interruption cools players down, reducing performance.

Fatigue and stress also significantly affect shooting quality.

Abstract

I demonstrate that repetition heats players up, while interruption cools players down in NBA free throw shooting. My analysis also suggests that fatigue and stress come into play. If, as seems likely, all four of these effects have comparable impact on field goal shooting, they would justify strategic choices throughout a basketball game that take into account the hot hand. More generally my analysis motivates approaching causal investigation of the variation in the quality of all types of human performance by seeking to operationalize and measure these effects. Viewing the hot hand as a dynamic, causal process motivates an alternative application of the concept of the hot hand: instead of trying to detect which player happens to be hot at the moment, promote that which heats up you and your allies.