La falacia del empate t\'ecnico electoral

TL;DR

The paper critiques the concept of 'technical tie' in electoral polls, arguing it lacks probabilistic foundation and advocates expressing uncertainty as a probability of victory for the leading candidate.

Contribution

It introduces a probabilistic approach to represent electoral uncertainty, challenging the traditional 'technical tie' concept used in polls and quick counts.

Findings

'Technical tie' concept is not probabilistically justified.

Proposes expressing electoral uncertainty as a probability of victory.

Highlights the need for probabilistic interpretation in electoral polling.

Abstract

It is argued that the concept of "technical tie" in electoral polls and quick counts has no probabilistic basis, and that instead the uncertainty associated with these statistical exercises should be expressed in terms of a probability of victory of the leading candidate. ----- Se argumenta que el concepto de "empate t\'ecnico" en encuestas y conteos r\'apidos electorales no tiene fundamento probabil\'istico, y que en su lugar la incertidumbre asociada a dichos ejercicios estad\'isticos debiera expresarse en t\'erminos de una probabilidad de triunfo del candidato puntero.