Intermittent dynamics in complex systems driven to depletion

TL;DR

This paper introduces a model explaining how complex systems driven to depletion exhibit intermittent dynamics with predictable avalanches, aiding understanding of catastrophic events in natural and social systems.

Contribution

It proposes a threshold-based mechanism for intermittent behavior in systems approaching resource depletion, with validation on real social data.

Findings

Transition from continuous to intermittent regimes identified

Avalanches can be predicted despite stochasticity

Model accurately describes real social system dynamics

Abstract

When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To understand and ultimately be able to predict such dynamics, we propose an underlying mechanism based on sharp thresholds of a local generalized energy density that naturally leads to negative feedback. We find a transition from a continuous regime to an intermittent one, in which avalanches can be predicted despite the stochastic nature of the process. This model may have applications in many natural and social complex systems where a rapid depletion of resources or generalized energy drives the dynamics. In particular, we show how this model accurately describes the time evolution and avalanches present in a real social system.