The origin, early evolution and predictability of solar eruptions

TL;DR

This paper reviews the physical mechanisms and observational data related to solar eruptions, assessing current forecasting capabilities and emphasizing the need for more realistic models and detailed understanding of magnetic field evolution.

Contribution

It synthesizes existing observations and models of solar eruptions to evaluate forecasting methods and highlights the necessity for advanced models and detailed magnetic field analysis.

Findings

Current models need to incorporate more realistic physics.

Understanding photospheric flows is crucial for eruption prediction.

Forecasting capabilities are improving but still face significant challenges.

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt.